![]() ![]() Small Forces Can Change Asteroid TrajectoriesĪsteroids are much smaller than planets, so their trajectories are affected by a wide variety of small forces, including heat from the sun. This is quite an accomplishment, considering that the radius of its orbit is about 168 million kilometers, according to NASA. During that time, it constantly sent information back to Earth using NASA’s Deep Space Network of giant radio antennas and was often able to pinpoint the position of Bennu to within a few meters. ![]() OSIRIS-REx was launched in 2016 and reached Bennu in December 2018.įor nearly two and a half years, OSIRIS-REx flew around Bennu like a hummingbird, taking pictures and gathering information about Bennu’s size, shape, mass and composition, and monitoring its spin and orbital trajectory. Bennu was discovered in 1999, and ground-based telescopes were used to study close encounters with Earth in 1999, 20. OSIRIS-REx Provides Unprecedented PrecisionĪs reported by NASA, precise predictions for the Bennu asteroid were possible because of data from the agency’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, which stands for Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security-Regolith Explorer. This also makes it far more likely that humans will eventually be able to alter the movement of such objects if necessary. While these numbers are slightly higher than previous estimates, any increased anxiety should be offset by the improved ability to predict the movement of near-Earth objects accurately. The date with the highest probability of a collision is September 24, 2182, when Bennu has a 1 in 2,700 (about 0.037%) chance of hitting the Earth. Thankfully, the probability of Bennu colliding with Earth is small: about a 1 in 1,750 (or 0.057%) chance between now and the year 2300. Of particular interest is the probability of an asteroid impact, which for an asteroid of Bennu’s size, could leave a 3-to-6-mile-wide crater and pack the energy of more than 1.1 billion tons of TNT.Īs NASA’s planetary defense officer Lindley Johnson told reporters, “An object Bennu’s size impacting in the Eastern Seaboard states would pretty much devastate things up and down the coast.” Low Chance of Asteroid Impact NASA scientists have used new data and complex computer models to predict the precise path of the Bennu asteroid for the next 300 years, according to Icarus. "I think that, overall, the situation has improved.Bennu is a 500-meter wide asteroid that orbits our sun, following a trajectory that periodically brings it alarmingly close to planet Earth. ![]() "The impact probability went up just a little bit but it's not a significant change, the impact probability is pretty much the same," lead author Davide Farnocchia, who works at NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies in California, said during a news conference held Wednesday (Aug. ![]() And besides, the lessons the research offers for asteroid trajectory calculation could reduce concerns about potential impacts by other asteroids more than enough to compensate. Technically, that's a small increase in risk, but the scientists behind the new research say they aren't worried about a potential impact. While a slightly higher risk than past estimates, it represents a minuscule change in an already minuscule risk, NASA said. From the report: Estimates produced before OSIRIS-REx arrived at the space rock tallied the cumulative probability of a Bennu impact between the years 21 at 1 in 2,700, according to NASA. "As a result, scientists behind new research now say they're confident that the asteroid's total impact probability through 2300 is just 1 in 1,750," reports. NASA's OSIRIS-REx spacecraft has been orbiting an asteroid called Bennu for more than two years to fine-tune the agency's existing models of its trajectory. ![]()
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